Predictions

2008

  • A very active M&A year. E.g., Microsoft, IBM and Cisco will buy at least 20, 20 and 10 companies respectively
  • The year of UC with Microsoft becoming a top 3 VoIP vendor
  • Unified communications will be available to the SMB market through managed service offerings
  • The battle over UC developers erupts pitting Microsoft, Cisco and Avaya against each other as they woo developers
  • High end desktop phones sales drop like a rock, as UC and smartphone sales skyrocket
  • SIP Trunking takes off as the preferred way to connect UC islands and provide inter-enterprise UC links
  • Virtualization moves beyond, power and space savings in the data center into networks
  • NAC, NAP and TrustSec define the core of a compliant ready network
  • Enterprise mobility expands outside of email and calendar as mainstream corporate applications go mobile
  • 16 million Iphones will ship, representing nearly 10% of total expected smartphone shipments replacing Palm OS
  • Green IT hits the US as the corporate social responsibility programs start to include IT purchases
  • WAN Optimization, Layer 4-7 and SSL VPN technologies come together to create an “application delivery” market

2012

  • Telepresence is available in 40% of organizations
  • There are only three enterprise switch companies with annual revenues over $600M, inclusive of Cisco
  • There are only four enterprise communication suppliers in the market with revenues greater then $5B, inclusive of Microsoft. Microsoft reaches 25% market share in VoIP
  • Open source IP Telephony reaches 10% market share
  • UC based softphones are ubiquitous on laptops, desktops and mobile end points.
  • Phone tag and v-mail usage is nearly gone from corporate communications, replaced by presence based IP communications
  • Apple Iphone will be the second largest player in the advanced OS smartphones market. Apple is still half the size of Microsoft
  • More then 50% of global 2000 concerns appoint a Chief Communications responsible for communications enabling business process. Communications Enabled Business Processes or CEBP is systemic and common across the global 2000 as it’s a contributor to corporate annual productivity, on the order of 1.5 to 3%.
  • Networks evolved from a connectivity service to a platform with embedded security, application delivery, quality of service, virtualization being systemic in corporate networking
  • FiberChannel and Infiniband market share fall as Ethernet becomes the single network technology in the data center
  • IPTV finally gets traction
  • WAN optimization products can be found in 35% of branch offices